Why is there an increase of fire incidents during FIRE PREVENTION month?

Reason:
The easiest answer lies with our minds.  Dobelli (2013) calls it the “regression to mean delusion” often called in statistics as “Statistical Regression on to mean”or SRTM.  Babor (2008) points out that Regression on mean occurs in the following conditions:

  • You have a relatively SMALL sample size
  • Conclusions were derived from such sample

How the f*** is that related to fire incidents?
Bear with me for a while.  March is fire prevention month, so how come there is a perceived increase of fire incidents on fire prevention month.  As we apply SRTM, March will be the regression period for fire occurrences, note that there are many factors to contribute to a fire.   For these outside or intervening factors the incidents of fire will return to its average or mean.

In Layman’s term?
It means that our minds are tickled fancy by the sheer irony of increased fire incidents when in reality more Fire incidents occur on April.  De Costo and Gumela (2014) points to the statistics, the study was Philippine environment:

Based on statistics from the Bureau of Fire Protection (BFP), there were more fire incidents in April than in March from 2010 to 2013. A total of 5,355 blazes occurred in April, while 4,561 fires happened in March during the period 2010-2013. On the average, April registered the highest number of fire incidents per year at 1,339 followed by March with 1,140. Taking into consideration the significant change over time of April fire occurrence in the country, does it then warrant a closer examination of the Fire Prevention Month observance in March – See more at: http://www.nscb.gov.ph/sexystats/2014/SS20140509_fire.asp#sthash.0rhEpXSQ.dpuf

Yet this does not stop Firemen from raising awareness that fires that human negligence contributes to burning of homes.

References:
BABOR, T. F. (2008), Regression to the mean: elephant in the living room or the
delusions of a Swedish student ‘out bicycling’?. Addiction, 103: 4–5.
doi: 10.1111/j.1360-0443.2007.02035.x

Dobelli, R. (2012).  Kunst Des Klaren Denkens.  [The art of thinking clearly].
N. Griffin Trans.)  Germany: Hanser.

De Costo, S.B. & Gumela.  Should fire prevention month be moved to April?.
Retrieved from http://www.nscb.gov.ph/sexystats/2014/SS20140509_fire.asp#sthash.0rhEpXSQ.dpuf

On being deaf

My hearing aids.

My hearing aids.

Disability is a word that is negative in connotation.  It presumes the lose of our natural sense allowing others to pity us.  My natural disability is that of hearing.  My audiologist describes my condition as severe bilateral sensory aural hearing loss, where I can hear lower then the usual person.

When did it start?  I remember being addicted to FM radio, so much that I would win weekly; the DJ would snicker telling me to give chance to others.  My desire back then was to become a Disc Jockey, their profession sounded admirable as they are also counsellors, friends to people but cloaked with anonymity.  I even auditioned to be one over at Love Radio in Cebu but the fortitude and patience required was among my weakest trait that I gave up even before I started.  It was in High School that our family noticed something a miss about me.  I took to long to reply, and I would not even notice someone calling me.  Hearing loss started in my High School days, I never wanted to wear a hearing aid but they coaxed me into submission.  When I first wore a hearing aid it felt as if I was trapped in a audio booth.  I realized hearing aids can never guarantee that you can hear everything, it merely acts as a helper.

I started teaching way back in my 20’s and my hearing loss never became a hindrance.  My employer was even proud of me back then as despite such disability I can write a good promo for his school.  I never thought of learning FSL (Filipino Sign Language) until I married my wife who is a Special Educator.  At first It made me depressed, I was in denial for thinking that I am not handicapped but the good people at Gualandi Volunter Service Program (Cebu) made me feel that being deaf is not a disability; deaf people would talk to me through signs and I would reply back using FSL.  Here’s a video of me and my wife doing FSL

I admit that I am no master in the Sign Language but with such exposure to a great community I can not help but feel blessed.

One off the bucket list.

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The bucket list is a popular term for things that one wants to accomplish before he dies.  The phrase was made popular by the Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman in the movie of the same title.  One of the things that I envied most of my tenured co-teachers is the fact that they are teaching also in the graduate school (GS), I felt that the GS allowed faculty the freedom the one never had in the undergraduate level of teaching. 

I am very happy to have been part of their first semester in the University of the Visayas, I want to think that I did my best in accommodating them despite my inherent flaws on hearing.  It is my hope that I made them smile and reflect that the graduate school is not a walk in the park but one must prove his mettle like the “ONE PIECE CREW” (yes I watch ALOT of anime).

I can’t credit each of them but having them as a class was the highlight of the month for me, it was something that I am very proud of, taking one off my bucket list and I hope to be with the graduate school again.

“Swipper no Swipping” my dear adventurers.

Publishable view.

Reader's view

Reader’s view

The last time I  wrote to a local daily at most ten years ago;  writing to local papers to get your view published may seem daunting but one must observe the following:

  1. Write you REAL NAME (no pseudonyms allowed)
  2. Write your CONTACT NUMBER (The won’t send you spam on your mail or even text you)
  3. Try to write in Good English
  4. It pays to be technical about it.  Observe the rules on grammar and sentence construction.

Granted one can not expect to write better but practice makes perfect.  I hope you can write your opinion and share it on a local daily too.

ED 501 UPDATE

ED 501 Students, yeah like the jeans.

ED 501 Students, yeah like the jeans.

SADLY, it is with a heavy heart that I have to give ED 501 with OFFER CODE:  10130 to another teacher, I have no doubt that their new teacher has more pizzazz and finesse that I could ever muster.  The reason is the fact that both offer codes 10130 and 10159 have 30 students each hence they can never be fused as per School Register Regulations to be maintain that high quality of UV teaching methodology.

For those who missed the first meeting, you can CLICK HERE.

Reminders that assignment can be e-mailed to my address aljoriz at uv dot edu dot ph
You have before the 1st week of August to submit them.  No assignment was given for the class yesterday as I have to read all of your submissions.

How to make a literary review on related literature?

Here are some of the best guidelines for writing a literary review on related literature.

From Rallis (2014) she points out the following:

Importance of following the 6th APA citation
Identify the literature
Analyse the literature

There are many guide lines on making a review but if I were to be asked on how to make one.  I follow these:

  1. What makes that study related to your topic?
  2. What are the pro/cons of that resource?
  3. What do other writers say about THAT particular resource?
  4. In what way was the study biased, if ever, and how obvious was the bias?
  5. Make sure your ideas flow to one another.

In short, making a literary review can be summed as making a critique of a work.  Pag marunong tayong pumuna sa gawa ng iba, ito ay isang review na.  Writing is never boring and it becomes more fun if the writer finds himself proud of his work.  There are no boring works, only boring writers.

Society and social media: for better or for worse.

Who among us can escape the visage of social networking media?  It has been the buzz of this generation.  You can find it almost any where: malls, cell phones, advertising.  No can can escape the inherent propensity to share a good or a bad event in one’s life.  It is common sight at restaurants to see people using their phones, checking out their social life in the network, while waiting for their food.  It gives rise to a growing disconnection in the real world.

 

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Gone are the days of fun conversation, eye contact and the charm of personal communication.  I do not know how long this growing disconnect will continue but I am more appalled with another growing trend.  The use of social media to correct a perceived injustice.  Let me point out that when a woman is falsely accused of shoplifting and when a Priest berates a young mother shall we just take a video, upload it to the social network instead of taking a more proactive stance like immediately lending a helping hand? 

It can be argue that posting such in the social network is a sign either of the following:  passive aggression, a coping mechanism or even to a extent neurotic tendencies coupled with massive amounts of amor propio

Who among us can escape the visage of social networking media? Not you and certainly not me, excuse me while I post this on the blog. 

Idioms

The Grass is always greener on the other side of the fence.

This is one of the few idioms that took me a long while to understand and contemplate upon; in hindsight it was probably due to my arrogance that I never bothered to look it up. In my younger years, I thought it meant that the other side was always better.  Looking at my academic career, I started out with Royal Christian College; thinking I hit jackpot I was so elated only to find out that there were somethings I wasn’t too eager with the job.  Maybe the more apt idiom ought to be

The other side of the prison cell looks better from my side of the cell